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Home > Predictions for the Women’s World Cup 2023

Predictions for the Women’s World Cup 2023

Publish Date:July 18, 2023
Fact checked by: Chris A
Predictions for the Women’s World Cup 2023

Predictions for the Women’s World Cup 2023

The women’s World Cup in 2019 was won by the United States after they defeated Netherlands 2-0 in the final held in France.

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The United States women’s soccer team has won the previous two Women’s World Cups, and they have a good chance of winning a third in 2023. According to Gracenote’s forecasting method, the US team is the favorite to succeed in this year’s championship in Australia and New Zealand.

 

Gracenote estimated the results of the Fifa Women’s World Cup tournament using data from the women’s world rankings. It ran almost one million simulations. The United States is considered the favorite to be the women’s world cup winner, but the tournament appears to be quite open, and they are not overwhelmingly favored.

 

Predictions for the England National Team

Gracenote Nielsen’s World Cup predictions.

The World Cup’s Group D is highly competitive, with three teams in the top 15 world rankings: England, Denmark, and China. Additionally, the group includes a new team, Haiti.

 

Gracenote predicts that the chances of the Lionesses progressing from the group stage is at 88%, indicating that they should easily make it to the knock-out stage. The predictions also show that Group D is quite competitive, with Denmark and China having only a 4% difference in their chances. The Danes are slightly favored to progress, with a 57% chance, while China has a 53% chance.

 

According to Gracenote, England is expected to win Group D and advance to the last 16. They predict England will have a close victory over Canada in this round. However, Gracenote predicts that England will face Germany in the next round, whom they believe will seek revenge for their loss in the Euro 2022 final.

 

Which teams are considered favorites to win the World Cup 2023?

Gracenote estimates that the United States has an 18% chance of winning its fifth Women’s World Cup. However, their strongest challengers are in the same draw half. Sweden, ranked third in the world by Fifa, is estimated to have an 11% chance of winning the World Cup for the first time.

 

In the 2020 Olympic women’s football tournament group stage, Sweden won 3-0 against the United States. If one team group and the other finish second, they may face each other again in the last 16. It is also possible for them to meet in the semi-finals. Germany and France are also strong contenders, with an 11% and 9% chance of winning, respectively.

 

According to the ratings, England and Spain have an 8% chance of winning major tournaments in consecutive years. Co-hosts Australia have the same chance of winning the Women’s World Cup for the first time, along with Brazil at 7%. Canada is also rated, with a 6% chance of becoming the champion of both Olympic and world championships.

Chances of winning the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023 (Stat source: Nielsen’s Gracenote)
TeamQuarter-final chanceSemi-finalFinalWinner
United States67%49%31%18%
Sweden56%36%21%11%
Germany57%34%19%11%
France61%34%18%9%
England53%29%16%8%
Spain68%32%17%8%
Australia54%29%15%8%
Brazil55%27%13%7%
Canada49%25%12%6%
Netherlands45%26%12%5%

 

Which Teams Will Make the Final?

Gracenote predicts that the United States has a high chance of being present in the five most probable scenarios for the 2023 World Cup final, so the USA World Cup odds look good. One of those scenarios includes a USA vs. England final, which has a probability of almost 5%. It would undoubtedly be a thrilling match-up if it were to happen.

 

Could We Expect Some Big Scorelines?

The 2023 Women’s World Cup will have 32 teams, an increase from the previous 24 teams in 2019. The tournament format will be similar to last year’s men’s tournament in Qatar, featuring eight groups with four teams in each. The top two teams from each group will move on to the last 16.

And just so happens that the upcoming tournament will feature eight new teams, all of whom will be making their World Cup debut in 2023. These teams are Haiti, the Republic of Ireland, Morocco, Panama, the Philippines, Portugal, Vietnam, and Zambia. As a result, the tournament will have the most incredible difference in FIFA world rankings ever seen.

The United States is the highest-ranked side, while the lowest is Zambia, at number 77.

It is unclear whether one-sided games will be in Australia and New Zealand. At the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup, the United States beat Thailand 13-0, the biggest winning margin in any FIFA World Cup final match, regardless of gender.

 

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