Thus, the MVP market is messy and has limited options with only a few players having good odds. The sportsbooks have lowered the odds after losing money on previous winners like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Last year, Patrick Mahomes had good odds despite the absence of Tyreek Hill.
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There are currently 5 players with odds under 15-1 to win MVP, and 11 players with odds of 25-1 or lower, which is more than one-third of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Geno Smith (35-1), Derek Carr (40-1), Jared Goff (40-1), and Deshaun Watson (40-1) are also in the running. Keep in mind that it would take an exceptional season for these players to receive votes from the 50 MVP voters before betting on them to win the award.
The team that finished with the worst record in the league has an extremely athletic quarterback named Justin Fields. His odds of winning MVP are 25-1, which is not a good bet, even if you think he is talented. Two other quarterbacks on the same team, Trey Lance and Brock Purdy, have better odds at 40-1 and 45-1, respectively.
To simplify, I will choose three bets – one with odds of 25-1 or better, another with odds of 50-1 or better, and one with very long odds. This market isn’t the best, but it’s popular for betting. My goal is to identify some good options with potential value.
Trevor Lawrence (16-1)
Lawrence was chosen over Lamar Jackson, who has a 14-1 record, based on the John Breech stat that the MVP typically comes from a division winner. Although Jackson is playing in Todd Monken’s offense, which is intriguing, credit should be given to Greg Roman for producing Jackson’s 2019 unanimous MVP win. He was a more appealing choice at 25-1 odds before signing his contract. Jackson is in a challenging division with a rising Bengals team, a potential Steelers contender, and an up-and-coming Browns squad.
It is possible that Lawrence will win his division and make significant progress in his second year with coach Doug Pederson. There is also an interesting storyline involving Urban Meyer’s impact on the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars in 2021, and Pederson’s ability to turn things around. If Jacksonville wins 12 or more games, Lawrence, who was highly regarded coming out of Clemson, would be a strong candidate for an award. Additionally, the presence of Calvin Ridley on the team adds to their strength.
Matthew Stafford (50-1)
If you’re looking for another option, Russell Wilson (45-1) might suit you, but there are two problems in Denver. Firstly, I believe Sean Payton will receive most of the credit if Russ succeeds after having a bad year last year. Secondly, the Broncos might finish behind the Chiefs in the AFC West even if they are really good. This means that Russ could perform well, but Denver might still come in third place.
It’s worth noting that Stafford is a former Super Bowl-winning quarterback who threw for 41 touchdowns and almost 4,900 yards just two years ago. Despite the fact that Vegas predicts the Rams to have a win total of 6.5 and considers them a long shot in the NFC West, there is a possibility that they will exceed expectations. After all, Sean McVay, who led the team to the Super Bowl, only had his first losing season last year. So, can’t we expect him to improve the offense this year?
If the Rams can perform well on offense with the help of their offensive line, Cooper Kupp playing in 17 games, and a decent run game, their chances of winning the division will increase. They would need the Seahawks to perform slightly worse and the 49ers’ quarterback situation to be shaky. If they can achieve this, they could win the division and create a narrative about their success being due to their offense after the trade for Jalen Ramsey. It’s important to note that Aaron Donald is still a crucial part of their team and will be recognized later in this prediction series.
Sam Darnold (100-1)
I understand why you find this amusing, but we believe Darnold is the best option among everyone north of 100-1. It’s been a while since a non-quarterback won the MVP award. The last time was in 2012 when Adrian Peterson won it over Peyton Manning, and before that was in 2006 when LaDainian Tomlinson was rightfully awarded. Although it may seem like a long time ago, it still reflects how the NFL operates when it comes to awards. The Heisman Award has become more focused on quarterbacks in recent years. Even if there are other outstanding players in other positions, they are often ignored. Occasionally, a non-quarterback like Christian McCaffrey could be considered they had a standout season and their team’s quarterback situation was weak. But this is not always the case, and quarterbacks still dominate the award.
I prefer to consider Darnold, despite the high odds. Lance and Purdy are also potential candidates, but they have lower odds of winning the award. It’s uncertain who will play as quarterback for the Niners. However, the team is highly favored to win the NFC because of their strong roster. The only concern is the quarterback position, which is the most crucial position in sports.
If Darnold, a highly-touted college quarterback who was selected in the top five by the Jets, can effectively act as the point guard in Shanahan’s offense while working with a strong offensive line, he could successfully distribute the ball to players like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey. What would happen in this scenario? The key to this offense is not a quarterback who can make every possible throw, but rather one who can distribute the ball effectively at the right moment and in the right location. We have seen this system work well with several unexpected quarterbacks when paired with Shanahan. Take, for example, the 2014 Cleveland Browns who were led by Brian Hoyer and were in first place in the AFC North. It’s important to remember this when making your MVP bets.
